South African cellular subscriber numbers took a dip in the last quarter of 2009, leaving analysts to ponder if the market has reached saturation.
Frost & Sullivan analyst Spiwe Chireka says that for the first time, SA saw a 2% drop in overall subscriber numbers in the last three months of 2009, to 49 120 511. This represented a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4% and an annual decrease of 2%, she explains.
“We do believe that the bulk of this decrease is attributed to RICA [the law requiring registration of SIM cards], which has slashed net additions for operators quite drastically. So, the overall impact is that the overall number of new connections since the implementation of RICA in Q2 2009 has been low.
“Given that churn is a natural process in any mobile network that operators have limited control over, the overall impact is that the new connections, minus churn, have now become negative, namely resulting in lower subs numbers,” she says.
Arthur Goldstuck, MD of World Wide Worx, also attributes any drop in subscriber numbers to RICA, which means fewer people are in possession of multiple SIM cards and, furthermore, fewer people are buying pay-as-you-go starter packs, another factor that buoyed subscriber numbers.
These analysts now question whether sub-Saharan Africa is no longer the final frontier for cellular subscriber growth.
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